Tuesday, April 28, 2009

More Than One Type of Car Crash


This will be a short and sweet post. I'm listening to an Ernst & Young presentation on supply chain risks right now and something has struck me as odd (to hear out loud).

The common public face is that auto sales should stabilize and rise sometime in the very near future, which is something I have taken issue with. There is an auto industry executive on this panel that just asserted that they believe that the worst is yet to come. In fact, the phrase "few years" was used to describe when a bottoming may occur. I find this view far more credible based on the lack of recovery engine.

I think it is reasonable to think that this could act as a proxy for the greater economy in general, particularly because auto industry sales levels have suffered far more severely than other sectors, and they may act as a leading indicator.

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